Game 11 Preview: Saints

(The "Five Things" portion of the preview won't repeat for the second divisional games. I'm not nearly creative enough to come up with ten things per team.)

The way it looks now, Luke McCown will be starting this game, which cripples the team pretty severely from an offensive standpoint. The Bucs will need to run the ball a lot and we already know Michael Pittman will be out. Pittman is an excellent blocker and blitz-killer and New Orleans already has the #9 run defense in the league. I expect the Saints will stack the box with as many as nine until McCown can prove to them that he can throw the ball. Joey Galloway, Ike Hilliard and Alex Smith really need to step it up at least in the first half and catch whatever McCown is throwing. Dive, slide, jump, tiptoe... whatever. If the Saints don't have to respect the pass, it's over. Lucky for us, the Saints have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, so opportunities should present themselves if McCown can just stay alive long enough to step up and throw. I expect Earnest Graham to get a decent number of yards (maybe 60 or so), but on a lot of carries.

The Saints have the best red zone conversion rate in the league and the fourth best passing game. This spells tight end receptions to me, so watch Eric Johnson in the endzone. The trick will be to keep the Saints pinned deep and make them go the length of the field. If the Bucs defense can take away the vertical passing game (please put Ronde Barber on Marques Colston), it will force the run and they're not too good running the ball (Reggie Bush is only on pace for 750 yards this season). Josh Bidwell, Michael Clayton and Maurice Stovall on punt coverage will be key. If they make the Saints go 85+ yards to score, they'll crack. Bucs by 4.