The Draft + Statistics 101 = I’m Kinda Bored
Published: April 20th, 2007By Bucstats.com weblog
Wouldn't it be awesome if the wild guesses that the experts are making for the draft could be consolidated and translated into a single mock draft? You say it would and the person that did it would be considered a god among men? Awww, you flatter me.
I chose six separate mock drafts, four from people who could be considered legitimate media, the other two from web sites that are fairly popular:
Vic Carucci (NFL.com), Don Banks (CNNSI), Derek Harper (Fox Sports), Dave Goldberg (AP), Profootballtalk.com, NFLDraftCountdown.com
Why did I omit Mel Kiper? Because fuck Mel Kiper, that's why.
I figure all these guys combined probably have all the possible contacts and leaks around the league covered, so there's no more actual solid information out there to be had. Everyone else doing mock drafts isn't any smarter than me, and I'm a dumbass, so their opinions don't count. And I only looked at the top ten picks for each of them since after that it just gets silly.
These six guys (are there any women doing mock drafts? And if so, are they selecting players based on college mascots?) collectively had only 14 different guys in their top tens, so there's a lot of consensus there. Averages don't work here for a number of reasons, so I used each player's mode to get his consolidated position. Here you go:
1) JaMarcus Russell
2) Joe Thomas
3) Brady Quinn
4) Calvin Johnson
5) Gaines Adams
6) Amobe Okoye
7) Adrian Peterson
8) LaRon Landry
9) Alan Branch
10) Levi Brown
Not many surprises. The perception around February was that Brady Quinn was dropping, but too many bad teams need a good quarterback so he's probably not going anywhere. It's funny that the two web sites have Calvin Johnson going at #1 and most everyone else has him going to the Buccaneers, showing who is more easily swayed by day-to-day rumors. The most "out there" pick was PFT's selection of Dwayne Bowe at #9. Everyone else had him going in the 20s and 30s.
So there you have it. Run to Vegas and drop your mortgage payment on this lineup because it obviously can't fail. Each analyst's individual picks after the jump.
